The adjustments are designed to preserve the fundamental objectives of deleveraging and the generation of value for shareholders established by the 2015-2019 plan in the light of new oil price and exchange rate levels.
The new Brent crude price and exchange rate used as premises for cost and investment projections were:
Given these new premises, the investment amounts for 2015 and 2016 were also revised,maintaining the priority of Brazilian oil E&P projects, with an emphasis on the pre-salt layer.
Projected manageable operating costs for 2015 were maintained at US$29 billion, while the estimate for 2016 is currently under revision within the scope of the ongoing annual budget.
Divestments in 2015-2016 were maintained at US$15.1 billion, having reached US$0.7 billion in 2015.
This revision for 2015 and 2016 led to a re-evaluation of the company’s portfolio of projects for the five years of the 2015-2019 BMP and a consequent adjustment of the overall investment portfolio, as shown below.
This new 2015-2019 capex, of US$ 98.4 billion, represents a reduction of US$ 32 billion relative to the previous amount (US$ 130.3 billion), and is a result of portfolio optimization (- US$ 21.2 billion) and exchange rate effect (-US$ 10.7 billion).
These adjustments to the investment portfolio resulted in a reduction in projected Brazilian oil production in 2016 from 2.185 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.145 million bpd and from 2.8 million bpd to 2.7 million bpd in 2020.
Petrobras’ oil production in Brazil averaged 2.128 million bpd in 2015, 0.15% up on the target of 2.125 million bpd, 4.6% more than in 2014 (2.034 million bpd) and a new annual record for the Company, exceeding the previous record set the year before.
The company is subject to various risk factors that may impact these projections, including:
– Changes in market variables, such as oil prices and the exchange rate;
– Divestment operations and other business restructurings, subject to prevailing market conditions and the time of the transactions;
– Achievement of the oil and gas production targets in a scenario of difficulties with suppliers in Brazil.